Cattle & Ranch Report

October 3, 2024
 
Live Cattle:
Today’s price action in live cattle is a different story compared to yesterday as more confirmation of a higher cash trade is needed to continue yesterday’s move which was influenced by some light cash trade starting at 186 in TX and 187 in IA/MN on 68 head.  The risk appetite in the entire ag space is not what it was in yesterday’s trade as market participants seemingly want some confirmation about what port strikes actually do to beef shipments and demand. Equities being down and energy being up in not lending support at the moment.  This week’s export number was supportive at 22,500 MT, up 68% over last week with South Korea taking 7900 and China taking 6200.  That China sale was 3x of what it was last week.   The elephant in the room is whether or not this is a pause before the resumption of the uptrend or a reversal.  The dec chart looks friendly but with outside market uncertainty and major resistance $2-3 higher, further cash trade will set the tone for the rest of the week.  Dec fats are down over $1 at the moment.
Feeder Cattle:
The feeder cattle index is currently at 247.24, but is expected to be $1 higher today in today’s reading. Thats still within 6% from all-time highs posted in July Front month futures are down almost $2 and given the unknowns, I see this recent $20 move in the futures as an opportunity to reduce your exposure, even for just a couple weeks to let some of these recent events flesh out.  This is a sales recommendation.  Port strikes, middle east tensions, elections are all factors that could change this narrative.  I’ve heard compelling stories that could be both positive and negative cattle prices depending on how disruptions all play out.  I always appreciate your input.  One thing most agree on is that all of this is inflationary and discretionary spending is at risk.  Crude is up $3 at the moment.

For daily emails on the current pricing please contact your agent or email

bschaefer@heritageinsservices.om